As the Tasmanian Government continues to deliver on its commitments stemming from the 2017 Legislative Council report into Wild Fallow Deer, decisions are being made which will shape the management of Tasmania’s deer for decades to come.
In late August, the report from the first aerial survey of Tasmania’s deer population was released.
Whilst the survey will give a good idea of population distribution and relative abundance, the actual population estimates of 53,660 deer (like pretty well all wildlife population estimates) should not be taken as a definitive number — the margin of error here is 19 per cent.
We have seen reporting and commentary portraying these results as evidence of a marked increase in fallow deer numbers — a useful line for people who are pushing agendas, but it is also at best a gross misunderstanding of the results and at worst a gross misrepresentation.
The same people who are pushing the argument about a rapid population increase are also pushing the argument that Quality Deer Management is not sufficiently managing the population. They invariably have other agendas.
The assertion about an increase is based on a conservative estimate (Potts et al) from 2014 of a statewide population of 40,000 deer. Interestingly when the same data used in 2014 was applied to the model used in the current estimates the 40,000 becomes 51,608. On a like for like comparison this equates to an increase of just five per cent in the upper estimate of the population over the past six years.
The significant changes to the deer season in Tasmania which came into effect this year, including the introduction of five-year crop protection permits and changes to the antlerless deer season should more than account for this.
The aerial survey provides the first set of figures in what should become a longitudinal data set — in isolation they are interesting, however, it is only when the data set begins to build out and we can track changes over time that it becomes a rich management tool.
Concurrent to the release of the aerial survey is the preparation of a report from an ostensibly independent consultant on the feasibility of commercial harvest of deer in Tasmania. Concerningly, just weeks before accepting the job, the consultant wrote the following on the propaganda site operated by the protagonists for commercial harvest.
“The deer population is such that both rec shooters and commercial cullers can co-exist. This means jobs would be created from a natural resource, which will be extra needed with the economic downturn coming from this corona virus pandemic. As well, farmers need this to help protect their crops and incomes. Also, I don’t want to see deer get into world heritage wilderness. Let’s be sensible. No one is wanting to take anything away from the shooters but rather to manage the deer population in a way that helps farmers, the unemployed and the Heritage wilderness. Win win all round! The government needs to hear that this is win win not a slap for the rec shooters who deserve a go as well.”
At best these comments display a lack of understanding of the complexities of wild deer management and an ideological predisposition towards a certain outcome.
The Australian Deer Association’s apprehension has been further exacerbated by the distribution of poorly worded, leading and statistically meaningless surveys on the issue and some accompanying alarmist media releases.
A situational analysis on commercial wild deer harvesting in Australia, prepared in August 2020 concluded that:
“The market for wild shot venison in Australia is small and developing.
“The experience of the ‘boom-bust’ nature of the farmed venison industry and the wild harvesting in New Zealand suggests expansion will be slow and market saturation levels will be limited.
“Preferred local outlets for prime cuts in particular will be particularly constrained for the foreseeable future due to the COVID-19 related downturn.
“Commercial harvest has the potential to assist in overabundant wild deer population management, although the value and scale of that can be overstated.
“Further research into potential market opportunities should precede any further government investment or regulatory change.
“Government should also consider the impacts on the farmed venison industry and recreational hunting of any proposed regulatory changes.”
We await with great trepidation the publication of the independent report. We will have more to say when we have seen it.
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